EMPLOYMENT AND PROVINCIAL GROWTH: THAILAND 4.0 AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH

Direk Patmasiriwat

ABSTRACT: This paper presents an analysis of employment growth and its relationship with provincial growth and productive structure of each province using panel data of 76 provinces over 2002 and 2014. The main results are: First, employment – GPP elasticity was estimated to be around 0.8 which is not a healthy sign for worker. Of note is that 1 million baht of GPP that used to generated 9 employee in early 2000s, now reduced to only 6 employee. Secondly, provincial inequality is high in Thailand with an estimated Gini coefficient of 0.48 in, which is decomposable into between-region and with-in region. Thirdly, it may be a ripe time for policy maker to evaluate a seemingly worrying employment situation and perhaps to design employment generation and workfare program to help worker in general and in particular the young graduates in order to achieve the goal of inclusive growth and Thailand 4.0.

Keywords: Employment-GPP elasticity, inclusive growth, Thailand 4.0.